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"It's as if we incarcerated every petty
criminal with zeal, while inviting mass murderers into our bedrooms."
~K. C.
Cole, The Universe and the Teacup, 1998
Time for one more chance to let your intuition point you to truth.
1. The terror of September 11, 2001,
claimed two thirds as many lives in one day as the Continental Army lost (4,435)
in the entire Revolutionary War. In all of the 1990s, how many people were
killed by other terrorist acts worldwide? How many in the year 2000? (Terrorism
includes such acts as the bombing of the destroyer Cole in Yemen, bombings in
Northern Ireland, and lethal acts in undeclared wars.
2. In the United
States, which more frequently causes death? What's your hunch?
3. Which country has more people?
- Australia or Burma?
- Iraq or Tanzania?
- Mexico or Brazil?
4. In recorded history (since 1876), about how many people have died,
worldwide, from unprovoked attacks by great white sharks?...
Chapter Contents
Perceived versus Actual Risk
What Influences Our Intuitions About Risk?
Biological predisposition
The availability heuristic
Lack of control
Immediacy
Thinking Smarter About Risk
Assessing costs and benefits
Communicating risk
Risks as feelings
Links to other websites about risk intuition:
David Myers essay on fears of terrorists and
flying
Calculated Risk,
Howard Margolis research
George Loewenstein
Paul Slovic's The
Perception of Risk
BACK to Intuition: Its Powers &
Perils homepage
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